Timing is a crucial factor in politics, and knowing when to reveal a winning move can make or break a politician’s chances in an election. Just when the 2024 general election in India seemed like a sure win for the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi due to his Hindutva-driven politics, the state of Bihar changed the narrative.
On October 2, which is celebrated as Mahatma Gandhi’s birth anniversary, Nitish Kumar, the chief minister of Bihar, made a significant announcement. To honor Gandhi’s fight for social justice, his government revealed the results of a caste survey conducted in the state from January 7 to August 25, 2023.
The finding released on October 2 has once again shifted the country’s political discourse toward caste-based reservation. Reservation is a system that provides historically disadvantaged groups representation in education, employment, and government schemes.
In Hindu communities, reservation is primarily allocated to four groups: Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), Other Backward Castes (OBC), and the Economically Weaker Section (EWS) of the upper castes (General Category).
OBCs receive 27% reservation, SCs get 15%, STs receive 7.5%, and EWS of the General Category get 10% in the government jobs, educational institutes, and even in the legislature to a certain section.
OBC, SC, and ST are considered backward castes, while the General Category consists of those who have historically held power, resources, and positions within Hindu society. The EWS quota provides reservation to financially weaker sections of the General Category.
The politics revolving around reservation is known as Mandal (in favor of increasing reservation for backward castes) vs Kamandal (those who oppose reservation for backward castes).
Mandal 2.0 vs Kamandal 2.0 in 2024
Based on provisions in the constitution of India, this system allows the federal government and the states to set reserved quotas or seats, which lower the qualifications needed in exams, job openings, university admission, scholarships, and promotions for socially and educationally backward citizens based on the caste census carried out in 1931 under British rule.
Last year, in a previous article, I pitched for a national caste-based census and its benefit to the nation, while explaining caste and reservation in detail. I categorically argued that using data that are a century old is inadequate to prepare a state or national budget tailored for the welfare of the oppressed classes.
New scientific data are needed for better implementation of welfare programs for the poor who were historically deprived of access to education, employment, and participation in the system.
The Bihar caste survey points in that direction and gives legitimacy to my assessment. According to the data released, Bihar has a population of more than 130 million, of which the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) at 36% were the largest social segment, followed by the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) at 27.13%, Scheduled Caste (SC) at 19.65% and Scheduled Tribe (1.68%).
This shows that marginalized castes make up close to a staggering 84% of the state’s population. It goes a step toward reiterating that marginalized castes are the most dominant bloc in India’s social structure, and yet remain deprived of their due rights and opportunities.
The upper caste (General Category) comprises only 15.52% of the total population. Currently, there is a 50% ceiling on reservation imposed by the Supreme Court for the backward classes. So governments (state and federal) cannot give more than 50% reservation in favor of backward classes of citizens in public employment under Article 16 of the Constitution of India.
The Bihar caste survey might pave the way for the political demand for doing away with the 50% ceiling on reservation imposed by the Supreme Court for backward classes. A 50% ceiling on reservation for backward in a state in which 84% of the population comes under backward caste does not look logical or rational.
It’s important to note that the Modi government has provided 15% upper caste or General Category 10% reservation in the Economic Weaker Section in 2019. This will be a travesty of social justice and equality and question Modi’s slogan of sabka sath sabka vikash (“development for all with all”).
A political masterstroke or a risky gamble?
Soon after Bihar released its caste census data, multiple non-BJP-state chief ministers expressed their commitment to conduct similar caste censuses in their states. Rahul Gandhi also indicated through his tweets that his Congress party would conduct a caste census at the national level if voted into power in 2024.
Even in the Parliament, especially the lower house (Lok Sabha), of 545 members, 232 people belong to the upper caste (General Category), that is, close to 42% or almost twice the OBC. In the Indian bicameral legislature, it’s the lower house of Parliament that selects the country’s leadership. The party with the majority or maximum number of members rules the country.
The BJP is known for practicing majoritarian politics through Hindutva, or Hindu unity. That’s why the party has never felt the need to appease the minority. However, the Bihar caste census reveals that the biggest beneficiaries are not Muslims, but the 15% of upper-caste Hindus in the state.
These data suggest that minority issues have been used to divert attention from the real problem in India, namely social inequality. Bihar’s caste-based census could pose a significant challenge to the BJP’s majoritarian politics and its claims of championing the cause of the majority.
Bihar is known for being a crucible for social and political movements that reverberate through the country. Historically, it has been the political capital of India. From the soil of Bihar, various political revolutions have bloomed that have gone on to change India’s political landscape.
Bihar has been seen to lead from the front when it comes to crafting a political opposition with national consequences. As an adage goes in India, “You can doubt the sharpness of a knife but should never doubt the sharpness of a Bihari mind.”
Will it be a Nitish political masterstroke for 2024 or a risky gamble? Only time will tell, but historically whenever Bihar has taken a political call, the nation has followed the path and stood by the narrative.