This week, India virtually hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which brought together the most powerful nations across the Asian landmass and beyond. Among those in attendance were no less than Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The latest SCO Council of Heads of State meeting was particularly crucial since it formalized the full membership of yet another major Asian power, Iran. In his opening remarks, Modi congratulated the SCO’s latest member while also signaling that Russian ally Belarus could soon also join the power grouping.
Member states also discussed other pressing issues including infrastructure connectivity challenges, cross-border security, insurgency and terrorism, and the increasingly volatile situation in Afghanistan, which shares a border with multiple SCO members.
Putin, the embattled Russian leader who just saw down a mutiny some have characterized as a coup attempt, used the occasion to project strength and expressed hope for greater strategic cooperation with like-minded Asian powers.
Under India’s rotational watch, the SCO was adamant that its expanding ranks do not necessarily signal a budding new military alliance. Yet all key members are committed to facilitating a more multipolar international order.
Despite their shared strategic interests, however, the latest SCO summit also revealed growing tensions among the world’s two largest nations, namely India and China.
Although India has refused to align with the West in the name of non-alignment, Modi implicitly criticized China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and robust defense ties with Pakistan, India’s archrival.
Reeling from its own festering border disputes with Beijing in the Himalayas, the South Asian powerhouse is also expanding defense cooperation with China’s rivals in the South China Sea, most notably the Philippines, a US treaty ally.
For his part, Putin put on a brave face amid a Wagner Group mutiny, a grinding war in Ukraine and economic recession at home.
Striking a defiant note, the Russian leader claimed that his country is stronger than ever, as it “counters all these external sanctions, pressures and provocations and continues to develop as never before.”
“I would like to thank my colleagues from the SCO countries who expressed support for the actions of the Russian leadership to protect the constitutional order and the life and security of citizens,” Putin told his SCO colleagues in a televised address from the Kremlin, referring to expressions of diplomatic support by neighboring states at the height of Russia’s political crisis last month.
SCO members such as India and China have been crucial to Russia’s economic resilience in the face of Western sanctions.
Russo-Chinese trade has exploded on a year-on-year basis. In the first five months of this year, bilateral trade totaled more than US$93.8 billion, making a 40.7% increase on an annual basis. Meanwhile, India has rapidly become Russia’s largest oil customer, just as Western economies have punitively scaled back their Russian energy imports.
Russia hopes that the inclusion of Iran, another major strategic partner that is also battling Western sanctions, would further enhance its pivot to Asia by facilitating the creation of a pan-regional trade and infrastructure development regime, with Central Asian SCO members as the geographic linchpin.
Putin was also visibly pleased by the vocal support of his most powerful SCO ally. China, the organization’s founding member, called for a new global order beyond the dictates of the West. Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping firmly stood by his Russian ally and, accordingly, accused the West of a “narrow-minded” and zero-sum approach to 21st century geopolitics.
“We should truly respect each other’s core interests and major concerns, and firmly support each other’s endeavor for development and rejuvenation. We should keep in mind the overall and long-term interests of our region, and make our foreign policies independently,” Xi told his SCO colleagues.
“We must be highly vigilant against external attempts to foment a new Cold War or camp-based confrontation in our region. We must resolutely reject any interference in our internal affairs and the instigation of ‘color revolutions’ by any country under whatever pretext,” he added, underscoring the need for solidarity among Eastern powers in face of supposed Western aggression.
Although committed to a more multipolar international order, India has a radically divergent strategic calculus than its Russian and Chinese SCO counterparts. For starters, the South Asian powerhouse, which is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (“Quad”) along with the US, Australia and Japan, does not face any Western sanctions.
By and large, the West has relented in the face of India’s insistence on continuing its robust trade and defense ties with Russia. If anything, the West is focused on providing carrots rather than sticks in its dealings with India.
During his recent visit to the White House, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed onto a series of defense deals, which are explicitly designed to reduce his country’s historical dependence on Moscow.
India’s divergent outlook was clearly on display during the SCO summit. On one hand, Modi implicitly criticized China’s BRI, refusing to back the infrastructure development initiative embraced by all other SCO members.
“Strong connectivity is crucial for the progress of any region. Better connectivity not only enhances mutual trade but also fosters mutual trust,” said the Indian leader while not mentioning either the BRI or China explicitly.
“However, in these efforts, it is essential to uphold the basic principles of the SCO charter, particularly respecting the sovereignty and regional integrity of the member states,” he added, effectively echoing “debt trap” accusations against China’s signature infrastructure initiative.
If anything, the Indian leader also took a jab at China’s warm ties with neighboring Pakistan. During the SCO meeting, where both the Chinese and Pakistani leaders were in attendance, Modi warned against the “use [of] cross-border terrorism as an instrument” of foreign policy, referring to allegations that Pakistani intelligence elements have been involved in violent operations inside India.
Growing geopolitical differences stretch way beyond India’s own backyard. New Delhi is now actively backing China’s rivals in Southeast Asia. Earlier this year, the South Asian power officially kicked off negotiations for the sale of BrahMos supersonic missiles to Vietnam, which has long been at loggerheads with China in the South China Sea.
Just days ahead of the SCO summit, India also held high-stakes bilateral strategic dialogue with the Philippines, another major claimant state in the Beijing-claimed waters.
Following its acquisition of the BrahMos missle system last year, Manila is intent on further expanding military cooperation with the South Asian powerhouse. Anticipating booming ties, India is set to dispatch its first-ever defense attaché to Manila.
During the 5th India-Philippines Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation meeting in New Delhi last week, co-chaired by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Secretary for Foreign Affairs of the Philippines Enrique Manalo, India reiterated its support for the Manila-initiated arbitral tribunal award at The Hague in 2016, which rejected Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea as incompatible with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
In a joint statement, India and the Philippines underscored the “need for peaceful settlement of disputes and for adherence to international law, especially the UNCLOS and the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea in this regard.”
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter at @Richeydarian