As the leading power in South Asia with a growing global outreach, India’s policies at home and beyond have always had an influence on its neighbors. India has made a decisive move via “twin-track diplomacy” to engage with Myanmar’s junta, noting its tight relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and concerns over Beijing’s growing affinity with the regime. But how feasible is it?
At present, India’s ties with its neighbors are strained. The perpetual cold war with Pakistan, the protracted tension along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the coup d’état in Myanmar, and democratic backsliding at home do not sit well with the India’s aspiration to be the region’s dominant player.
The rapport with Bangladesh alone, though still relatively cogent, is insufficient for India to attain regional hegemony. That’s why India has chosen to reconfigure diplomatic ties with its eastern neighbor, Myanmar.
India-Myanmar mutual essentiality
A long and porous border that passes across a steep region, frequented by insurgent groups operating in Nagaland and Manipur, complicates India’s relations with Myanmar. Myanmar’s military, or Tatmadaw, relies on the Indian Army to assist in limiting the Arakan Army, much as New Delhi relies on Myanmar to deny Northeast Indian rebel groups’ access to forest bases.
India’s concern over Myanmar has grown significantly since the February 2021 coup, as the new military leadership is closely aligned with China. It appears that India has made an attempt to revamp a close relationship with Tatmadaw, as Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla in December paid his first visit to Myanmar 11 months after the coup. That is insufficient, however, especially when China controls the chessboard.
The question is whether Myanmar will respond positively to India’s attempt to strengthen relations, despite its proximity to China. When deciding on policy alternatives, smaller nations need to consider whether they will lose ground or gain an edge when two big powers clash.
But diplomacy is not mutually exclusive. Developing ties with India would not necessarily jeopardize Myanmar’s ties with China.
Even if Myanmar’s relationship with China does not fundamentally change, India could give Naypyidaw more leverage against Beijing by emphasizing that Myanmar has alternatives to reduce its over-dependence on China.
India sees Myanmar’s nascent political reform as a strategic and ideological opening that provides New Delhi with an opportunity to lessen Chinese influence, while Myanmar stands to benefit from a greater economic, political, and strategic partnership with India.
This dual-track diplomacy may benefit both India and Myanmar by providing investment incentives, democratic restoration, connectivity, and resource utilization; however, India may seek regional hegemony by leveraging its genuine influence in the region.
But a major hindrance to this strategy is the Rohingya crisis. And that will not be solved unless Bangladesh is included in the equation.
Bangladesh a loyal but needy partner
India requires Bangladesh’s cooperation to ensure the security of India’s northeastern states. For its part, Bangladesh relies on India to share river water for agriculture and livelihood, to which India has failed to respond adequately, given the fact that the finalization of Teesta water sharing agreement is long overdue.
Additionally, India’s role, or lack thereof, in resolving the Rohingya crisis has strained relations with Dhaka. While Bangladesh was being overwhelmed by a massive influx of migrants, New Delhi was hard at work weaving a labyrinth of regulations to keep Muslims out of India.
The Indian government looks to be following in the deadly footsteps of the Myanmar authorities, purposely stoking religious-nationalist fervor and subjecting thousands of traumatized Rohingya to perpetual dread and suffering.
Bangladesh has been doing an excellent job of managing its connections with both China and India, making China a valuable economic partner while developing strong diplomatic ties with India. But nothing stays the same in diplomacy. China has already poked the wound that India opened in Bangladesh.
While India has yet to make up its mind on sharing the Teesta River’s water, China offered to collaborate with Bangladesh on an engineering project along the Teesta’s banks, allowing Bangladesh to maximize its access to the available water.
Twin-track diplomacy
To attain regional hegemony, India must be in the good graces of both Bangladesh and Myanmar. Being on Bangladesh’s good side is rather simple, given the strong basis of existing ties. India may form ties with Myanmar without losing Bangladesh’s support.
Besides, Bangladesh and Myanmar are not adversaries. Even after last year’s coup, the two nations maintained a generally friendly relationship – despite the presence of more than 1.1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being a major irritation.
India has pursued twin-track diplomacy with Myanmar not just to oppose China’s expanding influence in the region, but also to emphasize its “Neighborhood First” policy and press Myanmar to return to democracy.
If this mediation works, India might become a regional powerhouse in the long term, but only if it stands up instead of pursuing silent diplomacy on the Rohingya crisis as it has thus far. China attempted to act as a moderator at the onset of the crisis, but failed because of its inability to exert soft power.
Nevertheless, China is well ahead of India in terms of global hard power. India’s defense expenditure pales in comparison to China’s. So India must strive to leverage soft diplomatic power, something China lacks. If India succeeds in mediating the Rohingya crisis, it will have a big edge over China in the region.
Whether Myanmar completes its democratic transition or returns to its former pariah status, its geo-strategic importance and natural resources will continue to affect the balance of power in a region where Chinese and Indian interests overlap.
China and India may both be active in Myanmar, but not in a cooperative manner, because Myanmar is seeking to leverage both adversaries through a delicate balancing game. The challenge for India is to collaborate with all stakeholders in Myanmar to find a solution. Such action may not produce immediate results, but India’s twin-track diplomacy might provide significant political mileage for New Delhi, as befits an aspiring regional power.