If the Trump White House had let it be known a couple of months ago that it was working with the Kremlin to schedule a summit meeting between the two presidents, all hell would have broken loose in the Washington Beltway. But that hasn’t happened.
In fact, there has been an eerie calm in Washington in the lead-up before and after the announcement that Trump will meet Vladimir Putin in the old ‘Cold War’ city of Helsinki in Finland on July 16.
What explains it? First, the fizz seems to have gone out of the Russia collusion theory. Robert Mueller could keep uncovering crimes in American public life (of which there is no dearth) forever but he has not been able to say he has actually substantiated the Russia collusion theory. A Pew Research Center analysis on June 20 revealed that only 28% Americans remain any longer “very confident” of the fairness of Mueller’s investigation, while four-in-10 say they are not too sure (19%) or are at all confident (21%) in his ability to do this.
Pew admitted: “Republicans and Democrats offer starkly different assessments of Mueller’s conduct of the investigation and Trump’s ability to deal with it, and these partisan differences extend to views of the importance of the investigation itself.”
This partly explains why the cascade of criticism that could have been expected over Trump’s plan for a meeting with Putin hasn’t materialized – although a lavish, televised lovefest is sure to make a mockery of the Mueller inquest.
Fundamentally, Trump has had remarkable success in boosting his political standing among members of his own party. As Susan Glasser wrote in the New Yorker recently: “Increasingly, few Republicans are willing to stand in Trump’s way, even when the President’s policies clash with their own deeply held views.”
The recent lamentation by John Boehner, the former Republican speaker of the US House of Representatives – “There is no Republican Party. There is a Trump Party” – may be an exaggeration that he made while sipping a Bloody Mary on stage at a recent conference in Michigan.
Nonetheless, as Glasser writes: “The political reality is simply this: President Trump is now too popular with the Republican base to challenge, even when he appears to be upending policies the party of Reagan has embraced for decades.”
So, when Trump pressed ahead with a meeting with Putin (which he wanted all along), there was an air of resignation about it. To be sure, Trump’s dramatic, showy one-one-one meeting with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore rewrote contemporary American diplomatic history. And he rewrote it all by himself while no one back home was even sure whether he should do it.
Trump-Putin summit: perfect next act
Russia, of course, is different. But the analogy of the Art of the Deal is still relevant and why should Trump give up on his campaign vision of closer ties with the Russian president without ever testing it? The Russophobes are hard-pressed to find an answer. Thus, it was a fait accompli that as a US president who embraces personal diplomacy with America’s adversaries as his trademark in foreign policy, Trump’s forthcoming summit with Putin became a perfect next act.
Did Trump work towards this? The point is, he’s an inscrutable politician. It wasn’t mere coincidence that just before leaving for the recent G-7 summit in Canada, he would think up the unthinkable – Russia’s return to the grouping. The seemingly stray thought actually gets bracketed with his move to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the vital underpinning of President Barack Obama’s ‘pivot-to-Asia’ strategy (without which a containment strategy against China lacks gravitas).
The common thread is that Trump’s Art of the Deal means putting the focus on America’s interests rather than on the negating of adversaries’ legitimate interests or concerns – be it North Korea or Russia. Of course, if there is an uncomfortable overlap, a deal becomes necessary and Trump believes in his ability to negotiate it.
So, Trump essentially took at a pot shot at the West’s containment strategy against Russia by raising the G7 petard. Meanwhile, on a parallel track, the spadework began for a successful summit between Trump and Putin. Of course, there are so many fault-lines in the overall relationship and anything can go wrong between now and the summit. The Kremlin can ensure that there is no “sabotage” from the Russian side, but that cannot be said for the Trump White House.
An announcement confirming the Trump-Putin summit in mid-July came on June 28. The meeting will be held after Trump attends the NATO summit in Brussels on July 11-12 and Putin goes to the closing ceremony of the World Cup in Russia.
An early sign that the summit was being planned was news that a three-member group of Republican senators – Richard Shelby (Alabama), John Neely Kennedy (Louisiana) and John Hoeven (North Dakota) – would visit Russia in early July on a “reconnaissance mission.” Historically, Moscow has preferred to talk with America’s “hawks”. And the good part is that the Trump administration is sponsoring the lawmakers’ visit.
Trump has faced resistance from the US’s European allies who fear “exclusion” from a potential US-Russia rapprochement. And the resistance to detente in the US and in Europe coalesces. Yet, Trump’s strategic asset is that with a high popularity rating of 45% he is at his strongest position today politically and can do things pretty much as he always wanted.
– This article was updated on June 29.
Trump Putin cncounter could bring in potential US-Russia rapprochement to identify their global sphare of influnce until a decade when US can rebuild herself to dominate the Oceans! There is a question mark why US and Russian Allies are excluded from the meeting!
Is Trump and Putin eyecontact sending a message of British Imperialist policy of devide and rule the world to the detriment of even most trusted allies like Britain and China? Trump is unpredictable and even desperate to maintain his hegimony!
I do not think that Trump is riding high. I rather think that USA has decided to talk with Russia because USA has finally realized that it cannot beat Russia either militarily in Syria or by imposing economic sanctions. USA has also realized that it can no longer invade North Korea since North Korea is now a nuclear power with ICBMs that can strike any city in USA. So Trump decided to meet Kim JongUn at a table instead of in a nuclear showdown.
It is about time the whole "Russiagate" canard was discredited. The Democrats have done nothing to fight Trump on the issues which really matter and bet the future of the party on bashing Russia, China, and NK. All this will collapse into a big fat "no win" in November.
I disagree, Trump is not ephemeral at all. He has unleashed a true revolution in the USA. The so called Deplorables, aka as the sons and daughters of the USA now have a champion who will help them have a true voice. He has brought back nationalism as a positive force and this so-called Humanitarian Crisis was brought about by past administrations, especially the Obama, Bush and Clinton one’s who were lax on EEEELEEEGAL migration. NAFTA hopefully is done in the not too far off future, deportations will also increase, the border secured and the commie Democrats and New World Order Globalist nipped for a time. Trump will go on for 8 years and the USA will be all the better for it. Then Pence will take over and he will cement the gains made under Trump. It’s a beautiful world from where I can see it.
Hi Rajiv, can you kindly explain the fantasy part of the Great Vampire Putin slayer Robert Mueller’s investigation is heading? For your information he shot himslef in the foot by indicting the Russian company who are suing him for the discovery papers to which they are entitled to under US law, and he is hiding behind the national security intersts but it wouldn’t hold water for too long. Next the so called indictments of the Trump associates which the MSM touts with great abandon has nothing to do with collusion, but unrelated matters. They too will fall apart when the truth about Peter and Lisa, McCabe and Comey comes to light which ofcourse the swamp critters are fighting the Congress. But that too wouldn’t last long. As far as the immigrant crisis is concerned it is amazing that all these people from Free World news media conveniently ignored when the Great Emancipator Obama did the same thing. Oh by the way I voted for Obama in 2008 believing his word that he will not engage in fruitless wars and conveniently started to lead from behind in Libya liberation. Do you know what is curren the status of that rich country? Under Khaddafy it was prosperous and his people were taken care of, of course I don’t deny that he was ruthless to his opposition. But the common folks like me were not disturbed. For your kind information now the majority of the population which is the common people can’t walk the street or get out of their houses. That is what Great Emancipator done to these people, just like Bush did to Saddam’s Iraq.
The Presidency of a LEADER———-the 45th President of the United States———Donald John Trump!!
As usual this writer has indulged in part fiction and part fantasy to have us suspend our disbeliefs. Unless someone inside the Mueller investigation is briefing him on a daily basis. As in the case of Rohingya crisis, in a display total soullessness, the ambassador has bent himself backward to avoid any mention of the current embroilment of Trump in one of the worst humanitarian crisis of his own making. As long as any news item exalts Russia and Putin in particular, the ambassador would even believe or create fiction. Trump phenomenon is ephemeral and the ambassador can for now feel happy.