The fast pace of rapprochement between Seoul and Pyongyang has been surprising, and there has been much coverage – and unwarranted speculation – about upcoming summits between North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and later between Kim and US President Donald Trump.
However, one of the most striking announcements has been the revelation by South Korean government sources that Pyongyang and Seoul will discuss officially ending the Korean War that raged up and down the peninsula between 1950 and 1953 and which ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.
Equally surprising is the blessing by President Trump, giving both Koreas his approval to proceed in working to bring about a permanent cease-fire. What is unclear is whether Trump really endorses this or whether he must save face since the South Korean government first publicly shared this remarkable announcement.
Complexity follows
The pace of these developments should give one pause, for the significance of events has likely not been fully assessed. For example, if – and that’s a big “if” – a peace treaty were to be concluded by all belligerents of that conflict, it would bring a difficult question to the fore: What’s next?
One obvious topic of discussion would concern the future of the 28,500 American soldiers stationed in South Korea. Interestingly, at least one report quotes South Korean President Moon Jae-in stating that Kim is no longer demanding all US troops leave South Korea as a pre-condition for denuclearization.
However, a more careful read of Moon’s words yields a more nuanced understanding. Despite his obvious wishful thinking, all that has transpired is that the North is now not mentioning the American military stationed in the South. It is difficult to imagine Pyongyang not demanding at some point the removal of all – or at least many – of the US troops from the peninsula.
The issue of US troops is not as clear cut, however. Even though removal of all foreign – read: American – forces has been part of the North’s mantra for decades, Kim has not brought that up during his charm offensive for a reason. The young dictator may have recognized that US troops have proven to be a useful deterrent – to South Korea. Besides, Kim can always demand their removal during upcoming negotiations.
History buffs know that it was the US military that prevented South Korean President Syngman Rhee during his reign from charging north in response to a number of North Korean provocations. More recently, it was Washington that once again prevented Seoul from pugnaciously reacting to Pyongyang’s sinking of the South’s naval corvette Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong island in 2010.
Perhaps counter-intuitively, the presence of US troops in South Korea would also give Pyongyang another reason to demand economic assistance and security guarantees from either Beijing or Moscow – even Washington. North Korea is nothing if not adroit in maximizing its own utility at the expense of others.
Speaking before thinking
This multifaceted and evolving state of affairs in Korea has been exacerbated by the public expression on both sides of the Pacific of ideas that have not been adequately vetted.
John Bolton, Trump’s National Security Advisor, wants to use the Libyan model as the path to denuclearize North Korea. The mere mention of Libya is just about as foot-in-mouth as it could be with regard to North Korea. Pyongyang cites Libya as a prime reason to never give up its nukes, noting that Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown by US-backed rebels not long after his country terminated its nuclear program. Bolton, a smart operator, almost certainly knows this, so why is he making this point?
There have been missteps by Seoul as well. Moon wants to reopen the shuttered Kaesong Industrial Complex even though it is shielded from the rest of the North Korean population and the relatively few workers there are the only citizens in the North to benefit. While South Korean businesses get cheap labor, Pyongyang skims the major portion of laborer wages for its own uses – and never mind that sanctions proscribe it anyway.
Additionally, Moon’s special envoy to Washington in 2017, Hong Seok-hyeon, only last month proposed an economic alliance between Pyongyang and Washington. This flies in the face of sanctions against North Korea that were imposed by the UN – and unilaterally by the US and other countries as well – for good reason. Short on details, the proposal appears to be nothing more than an ill-disguised financial aid package to the North.
Finally, Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo have contributed to this as well. During his latest visit to the US, Abe hoodwinked Trump into promising to bring up the issue of the several Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s. That would deflect attention away from the very raison d’être of the Kim-Trump summit. The negotiations on denuclearization are going to be challenging enough without confounding the agenda with secondary issues.
Deja vu all over again
We are about to enter into talks once again with Pyongyang. A saying attributed to Albert Einstein comes to mind: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.”
Even so, the current situation is different enough from circumstances in the past that negotiations are worth another try. As British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once quipped: “To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.” Consequently, it is time to secure our seat-belts and hope for the best – the upcoming journey is going to be anything but smooth and safe.
If the USA wanted to invade NK, it has had 65 years to do it. Why would we want to. As for nukes, no they can not reach every American city. However, if any NK nuke ever hit any American City, or any allies, NK would disappear the next minute. The US has far more nuclear weapons, and they are strategically located. They always will have. Moreover, if NK misses a once in a generation opportunity, Japan and other nations will go nuclear as well.
NK has a per capita GDP of 1,700 US dollars, while SK has one of 39,400, Japan 42,700, and the USA over 60,000. (China a little over 16,000). Indeed, Trump alone is worth 1/4 of NK’s entire 40 billion GDP.. The wealth of these nations will always allow for more weapons. America bombed Pakistan even though they are a nuclear power and have over 180 million people. We sent a snatch team in to grab Bin Ladin out of bed and shoot him dead there. Nukes did not detour that. We also told Syria not to use chemical weapons, and when they did, we hit them with Russia and Iran standing by as we did. Point is, NK must get real and realize they can never compete with the size, military might, and wealth of surrounding nations.
The USA and SK are strong allies. We believed in SK when no one else did, and we primed SK, Japan, and China’s economic engine. All three are now strong, wealthy, independent nations. Americans would like to see NK become the same. As for American troops, the USA has kept the peace in the region and the sea lanes open for many decades, and will continue to do so. So, we will not be withdrawing troops from a region where we have many more obligations than just NK and SK.
NK has nothing the USA wants, other than peace. We would love nothing more than to see a peaceful, dcenuclearized NK, that takes it’s place among nations in the sun, just as we once assisted Japan, China and SK in doing. Moreover, many of us are enjoying hearing about NK and SK relations warming. We do have a soft side, and love a love story. Perhaps after 65 years one is due. But, that is up to NK.
Kim Jung-Un would also be heralded as the leader who brought NK into modernity and prosperty, ended a 65 year war, and restored relations between the Korean people.
The USA will not be withdrawing troops from the region as we have larger commitments other than just South Korea, so China should get that out of the mind. China should also realize if the sabotage the Korean peace summit, that surrounding nations are going to go nuclear as well. As for NK, I am an American with great hope that Kim Jong-Un will lead his nation out of the shadows and into modernity. He is 34 years old and it has been 65 years since the Korean War. Were he to denuclearize and commit to peace, the US would be willing to assist NK just as it primed SK, China, Japan and virtually every other nation in the region’s economic engine when they had per capiita GDP’s of 1,700 as NK does.
Contrary to Chinese propganda, America would like nothing more than to see a peaceful, prosperous NK, that could take it’s own place among nations, and if the two Koreas ever jointly decided to pursue reunification, America would welcome that as well, because we love a good love story. Many have no confidence in Kim Jong-Un, and while sceptical due to the past, I am also very hopeful. The reason being, Kim Jong Un must know that nothing would make him a more historical leader than being the one to bring NK into modernity and prosperity, warming relations with SK, and ending a 65 year war. He would be recalled as the Peter the Great of NK. Absent that, he has no place to go. Trump will not let up on sanctions, but will get tougher, including urging Japan and others to aquire nuclear weapons for their own added defense. Moreover, Trump is not a normal politician. He is willing to defy conventional wisdom, to a point of speaking with NK. If NK blows this chance, they will have blown it for another generation.
Whether USA likes it or not, whether USA accepts it or not, North Korea is a nuclear power with ICBMs that can vaporize any city in USA, including Washington DC.
USA must understand that it is no longer possible to continue with its invasion of Korea. If USA does not want to feel threatened by the nuclear arsenal and the ICBMs of North Korea, if USA does not want to risk the lives of tens of millions of its population due to a nuclear strike by North Korea, USA must put an end to its invasion of Korea by removing all its soldiers and its military equipment out of Korea. There is no point in trying to fool the American population by arguing that the American soldiers are in South Korea to protect the South Koreans. American soldiers are in South Korea to hold South Korea hostage, to use the South Koreans as human shields, to invade Korea, and to routinely murder and rape Korean girls who are usually called the patriotic prostitutes but who are in fact the equivalent of the comfort women for the Japanese soldiers.
President Trump will hopefully do a great deal with North Korea. Then he will have restored some of his lost goodwill. John Bolton and other US war-hawks want war and they do not hide their intension. We all know a new Korean war will be bloody, that fact has not stopped the US earlier, but it will be an economic melt-down if South Korea get damaged to much. Money talks, that make me optimistic we get an agreement.
President Trump is probably dreaming about his ticker tape welcome in the USA, when he takes all the glory for saving the world from Armageddon. Nobel Peace Prize? LOL