Many analysts predict that the upcoming year will witness a phased end to the Syrian conflict — at least, militarily. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 85% of Syrian territory has been liberated from ISIS and other groups that had controlled entire cities and towns since 2012. Aleppo was re-taken by the Russian and Syrian armies in December 2016, followed more recently by Albukamal and al-Mayadeen in the Syrian northeast.
In early December 2017, President Vladimir Putin landed in Syria and, from Russia’s military base in Hmeimeem, on the Syrian coast – he announced a thundering “mission accomplished,” promising to bring Russian troops back home in the weeks and months ahead. Excess troops that had been shipped to Syria in 2017 will be returning to Russia in the first weeks of 2018.
This will not apply to the 1,200 Russian military police deployed in the countryside of Aleppo and Damascus, or to the 1,000 troops monitoring the ceasefire in southern Syria. The Hmeimeem base will remain intact – it was leased to the Russians in January 2017 for 49 years, extendable for another 25.
Putin hopes that other stakeholders in the Syrian conflict – like Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, and the United States – will take their cue from him and start evacuating soon.
Politically, Putin hopes to jumpstart peace talks at the Red Sea
resort of Sochi some time in January or February. Over 1,000 Syrians will be invited to attend a “national dialogue conference” hosted by the Russian Foreign Ministry, ahead of Russia’s presidential elections in March. They will be tasked with signing off an endgame to the Syrian conflict, in accordance Putin’s terms and conditions.
This basically amounts to the drafting of a new constitution, followed by setting a date for parliamentary elections. Presidential elections won’t happen before 2021, and Putin insists on President Bashar al-Assad’s right to run for a fourth term in office when his present term ends in three years. Anybody who wishes to challenge him is welcome to do so, say Russian officials, promising that the elections will be free, open, and conducted under UN auspices.
As for the new constitution, a Russian-proposed charter is presently being debated at UN-mandated talks in Geneva, and many expect it to see the light by mid-2018. The Russian draft dilutes some presidential powers, such as the right to name the governor of the central bank, for example, but keeps him firmly in control of the army and security services.
The US president has seemingly surrendered to Putin’s endgame on Syria, so long as Iran is curtailed, ISIS is defeated, and the Kurds are empowered
This has already been flatly rejected by Damascus. The Russian draft goes so far as to modify the name of the country, dropping the word “Arab” from its title, in order to please non-Arab components of Syrian society (namely the Kurds). This has, inevitably, raised the ire of Arab nationalists and they are struggling to restore the present name: “the Syrian Arab Republic.”
The draft also drops Article 3 of the present constitution, which names Islam as the religion of the president, an omission that is strongly opposed by Islamists in the Syrian Opposition. And finally, the proposed charter calls for a quasi-federal system, one that gives different Syrian districts the right to elect their local councils and governor, rather than have him named by Damascus, along with the right to a share of their region’s natural resources. Syrian Kurds, naturally, are happy with this suggestion.
Unless parliamentary elections are called for, the new constitution
will likely be the only serious political development in Syria in 2018. Both – elections and a new constitution – will be debated at Sochi, then agreed through the Geneva process, in compliance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254. Passed two years ago, that resolution calls for “elections” without specifying whether they should be presidential or parliamentarian, as well as a new constitution and the start of a transition process.
Russian and Syrian lawmakers interpret that as being a transition from war to peace, and from one constitution to another, rather than from the present government to one made up of its opponents. The opposition, however, insists that it should lead to the departure of President Assad — something that is strongly vetoed by Moscow and Tehran.
At the latest convention of the Syrian Opposition, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in late November, they called for Assad’s departure, but framed it as a goal, rather than a precondition. Damascus insists that demand must be scrapped completely before an agreement is reached, threatening to boycott future talks if it is not. If it does, the Geneva process would be announced dead, but Moscow is keen to keep it afloat, wanting Geneva to effectively legitimize Sochi – so that, in other words, a Russian-engineered endgame enjoys the international community’s stamp, via the UN.
During his November meeting with Putin in Vietnam, US President Donald Trump agreed to let Sochi happen, provided that Iran’s role is controlled and curtailed in the process. The US president has seemingly surrendered to Putin’s endgame on Syria, so long as Iran is curtailed, ISIS is defeated, and the Kurds are empowered. He has already canceled funding for all but one of the armed groups that were on the CIA’s payroll, while other allies of the opposition, like Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, have shifted almost completely into the Russian orbit.
Militarily and politically, much is in store for Syria in the upcoming 12 months. Left standing, though, is the gigantic problem of the Syrian economy – a problem which everybody is clueless on how to address, the Russians included. According to the World Bank, the cost of rebuilding Syria stands at a staggering US$226 billion. This is money that no single country can provide. China and Russia have indicated a willingness to pitch in, along with other BRICS countries. Even with their combined resources, however, a Herculean task lies ahead.
Yes i start believing Ezekiel profeti. The end of they world every Jewish from old testemone believed, also inclusive Jesus Kr. Thats possible why nothing of his real words was writen dawn before 60 — 80 year after and the origin com from Markus. that corse after Jesus also speek ther was just short time back before end of They World-time out. So why write somthing then… if we cut away the new end who the churtch make Markus evang for to got them self great power with the World wide religion, we are closer the true that the world for Israel was Jerusalem who fall in year 70 after Kr. ande was endit destroid in year 135 af. Kr. So let us hope Ezekiel see the true. about on Putin the Pivot who changes the ware to peece.
Propaganda intended to make Americans admire Putin and the Communist state of Russia is no accident.
It is immoral for Assad to continue as syria’s president after the horror of killing his own people with siren gas. To retain Assad means that the conflict did not end, because Assad was part of the problem that led to war.It will be more helpful to syria if Assad if removed so that the old rot can end and syria will start on a clean slate, Afterall Assad didn’t win the war, but Russia, the US, and Kurds did.
Linder has said what is my mind. His analysis is accurate and precise.
When the war began, I said something: "this war is uncalled for and it is avoidable". What I meant, in essense was that America, except for its ultramotive agenda, could have just persuaded the oppositions to exercise patience for Assad’s tenure to run off while at the same time made Assad to see obvious and practical reasons why he should not contest again in the future transitional election. He should have been made to see destructive analysis of his tenaciously holding on to power. This was what I expected from the world leaders turned " world destroyers". Instead of doing this, Obama and Natenyyahu were funding ISIS "gimmikly" called "moderate opposition. For goodness sake how could a sane country of America status be happy sponsoring a rebellious group agsist a legitimate regime?
This makes me to conclude that as long as America remains the most powerful in the world, there would be no peace in the universe. Sloverdeen once repirtedly said America empowered Boko Haram in Nigeria. He authoritatively revealed that Boko Haram was trained in American Military Base in Morocco. America had, long time ago, wanted Nigeria to break up because the Nigerians, through our legislators, rejected America having Military Base in Nigeria. America does not realise that Nigerians may be dark in complexion but we are not as foolish as the Southern Sudanists. We are not as foolish as Libiyans and Iraqis. In fact we are myooic as Saudi Atabia. Nigetians are not Ruwandis nor Afgans or Somalis; we know who are enemies are.
America created Alqaida during the USSR invasion of Afghanistan. They daily encourage Alshabab in Somalia. These groups now want to save their countries from the economic grip of America and the latter now labelled them terrorists. Yes! They are now more than terrorists; they have now metamorphosed into "mobsters" that the whole world nurses. But the BIG questions is: who supplies them with weaponry and ammunitions since the so called terrorists cannot manufacture weapons themselves.?
Wow. How did Purim manage to move Sochi to the Red Sea as stated in the article? I thought it was on the Black Sea?
US bureaucracies, outmaneuvered.
People who are knowledgable and honest understand what we have witnessed in Syria is a US led proxy war against the legal government of Syria using a combination Islamacist forces in a replay of Afghanistan in 1979 and Libya, which is ongoing.
When Russia entered the fray, it immediately ended the ISIS convoys of oil into Turkey. The US knew all about this, but did not act. There were reports-sorry, no cite offhand- that US pilots reported convoys of oil tankers stretching to the horizon, but were forbidden to attack. This makes all kinds of sense when you realize the the main US objective in Syria was the destruction of the Assad government. And you know what they say, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend".
This is reflected in an article in the Began Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, BESA has close ties with certain foreign policy centere in the US. The article argues that the destruction of ISIS is a strategic mistake. And, considering what the true goals of the US and its allies asre, that is true. What a knowledge reader will glean from this is an understanding of just how much of a fraud the so-called War on Terror is all about. Islamic terror is, and has been, a weapon in the hands of not just the US, but imperial powers like France and UK, for at least since the end of WWII, and arguably since the end of WWI and the League of Nations mandate.
The winners Russia and Iran——-the losers———the Gulf States, KSA, Israel, Turkey and maybe the United States. The other winner is the Syrian Christians that Russia and Iran saved from the hand of death by Sunni ISSL!!
A solution is only possible if most Syrians behave in a reasonable way. A compromise must be reached, and a compromise never fully satisfies anyone. Russian ideas are reasonable enough and everybody should push all parties to accept them. There will always be some extremists on all sides, but democracies can function in spite of such marginal groups. At least that’s our experience in Europe.
Important that election proceed as agreed upon. China and Russia should take leadership in rebuilding of Syria. Refugees should be encouraging to return to rebuild Syria. Russia should station more S-400 to discourage Israeli air strikes. Israel seem to have an interest to create permanent chaos in the region.
Most importantly, the Syrian Government should NOT buy goods and services from countries that participated in this US/Saudi/Israeli proxy war. I am 100% certain the funding and rebuilding of Syria will be a good investment and create stability in the region.
Sami is truley clueless in his analysis. its Iran stupid that will manage Syria like it does with Lebanon!!…why can’t you get that in your head…you have your head up your Arse like Spengler!!
It seems that the Russians have some leverage with Trump and the Saudis are running out of cash. They have thrown a heap into their attempt to remove the Iran friendly government in Damascus. What a relief for those poor Syrians after years of horror. Well done Putin.
Just as Ezekiel 8 has prophezied, the dude Putin is now the Pivot of Middle East peace.