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Post-Covid economic recovery has already peaked

China’s growth downshift in the July-September period may confirm virtually every economist’s worst fear: that the supposed post-Covid-19 rebound has already peaked.

Gross domestic product (GDP) reports from the globe’s largest trading nation tend to flag zigs in the global economy where analysts had expected zags.

And China’s 4.9% growth from a year earlier in the third quarter suggests trends in the US, Europe and Japan – where data are disappointing, too – are for real.

Meanwhile, even the “post-Covid” recovery may be inaccurate phrasing. The shock uptick of cases in the highly inoculated UK is raising fears that vaccines are losing their efficacy.

All this means the V-shaped recoveries already built into most investment strategies for 2022 need to be reassessed. Perhaps drastically.

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