The United States Treasury yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2007, a sign that is widely seen as a reliable predictor of recession.
The yield on 3-year Treasuries exceeded that of 10-year Treasuries on Friday, a turn long in coming that is exacerbating fears of a slowing economy, following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s signal yesterday that there will be no interest rate hikes this year.
After rising on Thursday, stocks plummeted on Friday amid the deluge of headlines stoking fears of an imminent recession.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were both down around 1.5% as of Friday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the yield on Germany’s 10-year note – the safest of Europe’s haven assets – dipped below zero on Friday, as economic data points to a recession in Europe’s largest economy.
Investors are reacting to dismal economic data in Germany and the eurozone, as well as the European Central Bank’s 180-degree turn from normalizing policy back to a desperate attempt to juice the economy with continued stimulus.
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